Robert Ford | The University of Manchester - Academia.edu

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Robert Ford

The University of Manchester, Politics, Faculty Member

The University of Manchester, Politics, Faculty Member |

My research mainly concerns the links between diversity, immigration and politics. I am currently involved in projects examining generational differences in anti-immigrant sentiment in Europe; the sources of support for fringe right wing parties in Britain; the links between ethnic identity and political choice in Africa's new democracies and developing new experimental survey measures to understand public hostility to immigrants and Muslims in Europe

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Books

Revolt on the Right: Explaining Support for the Radical Right in Britain

Since 2009, the UK Independence Party (UKIP) has become the most successful challenger to the mai... more Since 2009, the UK Independence Party (UKIP) has become the most successful challenger to the main parties in postwar English politics. Yet with the radical right on the rise, important questions remain unanswered. What trends in modern Britain have made the rise of UKIP possible? How has the party modified its organization, strategy and ideology in the quest to forge ties with voters? Who is voting for the populist radical right in Britain, and why? To what extent, if at all, are UKIP supporters the mirror image of radical right voters in Europe, and where might the party go next? Based on an unprecedented amount of data, from surveys of UKIP voters to extensive interviews with UKIP insiders, Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin explore the wider trends that gave birth to UKIP, how the party has evolved, and who is shifting behind UKIP at elections. The book provides unprecedented insight into public support for the radical right in Britain, and contains important insights for those who are tasked with responding to the radical right challenge.

The New Extremism in 21st Century Britain

I have two chapters in this volume, co-edited by Roger Eatwell and Matthew Goodwin. One looks at ... more I have two chapters in this volume, co-edited by Roger Eatwell and Matthew Goodwin. One looks at public support for the main values and policy priorities of the BNP and argues that there exists a large pool of potential support for the party, perhaps 15-20% of the British electorate.

The second (co-authored with Matt Goodwin, Bobby Duffy and Rea Robey) looks at the demographics attitudes and priorities of BNP voters, with a particular focus on Barking and Dagenham.

Papers

The Better Angels of Our Nature: How the Antiprejudice Norm Affects Policy and Party Preferences in Great Britain and Germany

American Journal of Political Science, Apr 12, 2013

Existing research on public opinion related to race and immigration politics emphasizes the role ... more Existing research on public opinion related to race and immigration politics emphasizes the role of prejudice or bias against minority groups. We argue that the social norm against prejudice, and individual motivations to comply with it, are crucial elements omitted from prior analyses. In contemporary Western societies, most citizens receive strong signals that prejudice is not normatively acceptable. We demonstrate that many majority-group individuals have internalized a motivation to control prejudiced thoughts and actions and that this motivation influences their political behavior in predictable ways. We introduce measures capturing this motivation, develop hypotheses about its influence, and test these hypotheses in three separate experimental and nonexperimental survey studies conducted in Britain and Germany. Our findings support a dual-process model of political behavior suggesting that while many voters harbor negative stereotypes, they also—particularly when certain contextual signals are present—strive to act in accordance with the “better angels of their natures.”

Strategic Eurosceptics and Polite Xenophobes: Support for the UK Independence Party (UKIP) at the 2009 European Parliament Elections

Britain has long been identified with a strong tradition of Euroscepticism,yet we know little abo... more Britain has long been identified with a strong tradition of Euroscepticism,yet we know little about the drivers of support for openly Eurosceptic parties. In this article, we draw on a unique large-scale dataset to undertake the first ever individual level analysis of the social and attitudinal drivers of support for the UK Independence Party (UKIP) at the 2009 elections to the European Parliament. We find that while Euroscepticism is the most important driver of UKIP support it is not the whole story.
Other attitudinal drivers, namely dissatisfaction towards mainstream parties and xenophobia, are also important. Examining vote-switching between first and second order elections we also find evidence of a distinction between two types of supporter: more affluent middle class ‘strategic defectors’ from the mainstream Conservative Party who support UKIP to register their Euroscepticism; on the other are more economically marginal and politically disaffected ‘core loyalists’ who are attracted to UKIP by its xenophobic, increasingly Islamophobic and populist anti-establishment
strategy. Our analysis suggests that UKIP is well positioned to recruit a more stable and enduring base of support from its extreme right-wing competitor, the British National Party (BNP), and become a significant vehicle of xenophobia and, more
specifically, Islamophobia in modern Britain.

Is racial prejudice declining in Britain?

This article employs two previously neglected indicators of racial prejudice from the British Soc... more This article employs two previously neglected indicators of racial prejudice from the British Social Attitudes surveys to examine the social distribution of prejudices against black and Asian Britons. Three hypotheses are proposed and tested: that racial prejudice is declining in Britain; that this decline is principally generational in nature; and that greater prejudice is shown towards more culturally distinct Asian minorities than black minorities. Strong evidence is found for the first two hypotheses, with evidence of an overall decline in prejudice and of a sharp decline in prejudices among generations who have grown up since mass black and Asian immigration began in the 1950s. Little evidence is found for the third hypothesis: British reactions towards black and Asian minorities are broadly similar suggesting racial differences may still be the main factor prompting white hostility to British minorities.

Anti-immigrant, politically disaffected or still racist after all? Examining the attitudinal drivers of extreme right support in Britain in the 2009 European election

Some new work on the BNP, looking at the 2009 European Parliament elections. We examine the first... more Some new work on the BNP, looking at the 2009 European Parliament elections. We examine the first ever dataset to examine the attitudes of BNP voters, and find that racial prejudice is the strongest motivator for BNP support. Hostility to immigrants and populist anger with the political mainstream also encourage BNP support, while Euroscepticism and hostility towards other minority groups, including homosexuals, Muslims and Jews has no effect.

The anti-racism norm in Western European immigration politics: Why we need to consider it and how to measure it

In this paper, we propose a new research agenda aimed at improving theoretical and empirical mode... more In this paper, we propose a new research agenda aimed at improving theoretical and empirical models of immigration politics in Western Europe. In short, we argue for explicitly taking into account the social norm against racism that is neglected in existing research in this area. In theoretical terms, we draw on existing political science literature on European immigration and US race politics as well as on work in social psychology to explain why and how we think the anti-racism norm influences opinion formation, the political behaviour of individuals, and the effectiveness of various parties’ mobilization strategies. In empirical terms, we propose and present results from a pilot study validating two individual-level measures of the anti-racism norm—one that measures external motivation to control prejudice and another that measures internal motivation. The pilot study shows that the anti-racism norm exists and can be meaningfully measured in a Western European context. We conclude that the suggested research agenda appears theoretically promising and empirically feasible.

Angry White Men: Individual and contextual predictors of support for the British National Party

The British National party (BNP) is the most successful extreme right party in Britain's electora... more The British National party (BNP) is the most successful extreme right party in Britain's electoral history and is the fastest growing political party in twenty-first century Britain. This article presents the first ever individual-level analysis of BNP supporters, utilising a survey data set uniquely compiled for this purpose. We find that support for the BNP is concentrated among older, less educated working-class men living in the declining industrial towns of the North and Midlands regions. This pattern of support is quite distinct from that which underpinned the last electorally relevant extreme right party in Britain – the National Front (NF) – whose base was young working-class men in Greater London and the West Midlands. Extreme right voters in contemporary Britain express exceptionally high levels of anxiety about immigration and disaffection with the mainstream political parties. Multi-level analysis of BNP support shows that the party prospers in areas with low education levels and large Muslim minority populations of Pakistani or African origin. The BNP has succeeded in mobilising a clearly defined support base: middle-aged working-class white men anxious about immigration, threatened by local Muslim communities and hostile to the existing political establishment. We conclude by noting that all the factors underpinning the BNP's emergence – high immigration levels, rising perceptions of identity conflict and the declining strength of the cultural and institutional ties binding voters to the main parties – are likely to persist in the coming years. The BNP therefore looks likely to consolidate itself as a persistent feature of the British political landscape.

Acceptable and unacceptable migrants: the ethnic hierarchy in British immigration preferences

Comparative European research has established that public opposition to immigration is widespread... more Comparative European research has established that public opposition to immigration is widespread and politically important. However, most existing research has suffered from a serious methodological shortcoming: it employs aggregate measures of attitudes to immigrants, which do not distinguish between different migrant groups. This paper corrects this shortcoming by examining disaggregated British attitudes to migration from seven different regions. I find evidence for a consistent hierarchy of preferences between immigrant groups, with white and culturally more proximate immigrant groups less opposed than non-white and culturally more distinct immigrants. The differences in attitudes to different migrant groups are very large, calling into question the reliability of analysis which employs aggregate measures of attitudes to overall immigration. Both total opposition to migration and discrimination between migrant groups decline during the period examined. This is the result of large generational differences in attitudes to immigrants, which are in turn the consequence of cohort differences in education levels, ethnic diversity and in particular value orientations. Younger Britons, who are on average less authoritarian and ethnocentric, oppose immigration less and regard different immigrant groups more equally.

Euroscepticism is now a powerful force for the radical right in the UK–and UKIP is well placed to harness it

UKIP has watched as its competitors on the mainstream and radical right have exited the electoral... more UKIP has watched as its competitors on the mainstream and radical right have exited the electoral field. Robert Ford writes that previously Conservative-voting 'strategic Eurosceptics' along with the BNP's 'polite xenophobes' have joined UKIP's ranks giving Nigel Farage and his party an unprecedented political opportunity.

Revolt on the Right: Explaining Support for the Radical Right in Britain

Since 2009, the UK Independence Party (UKIP) has become the most successful challenger to the mai... more Since 2009, the UK Independence Party (UKIP) has become the most successful challenger to the main parties in postwar English politics. Yet with the radical right on the rise, important questions remain unanswered. What trends in modern Britain have made the rise of UKIP possible? How has the party modified its organization, strategy and ideology in the quest to forge ties with voters? Who is voting for the populist radical right in Britain, and why? To what extent, if at all, are UKIP supporters the mirror image of radical right voters in Europe, and where might the party go next? Based on an unprecedented amount of data, from surveys of UKIP voters to extensive interviews with UKIP insiders, Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin explore the wider trends that gave birth to UKIP, how the party has evolved, and who is shifting behind UKIP at elections. The book provides unprecedented insight into public support for the radical right in Britain, and contains important insights for those who are tasked with responding to the radical right challenge.

The New Extremism in 21st Century Britain

I have two chapters in this volume, co-edited by Roger Eatwell and Matthew Goodwin. One looks at ... more I have two chapters in this volume, co-edited by Roger Eatwell and Matthew Goodwin. One looks at public support for the main values and policy priorities of the BNP and argues that there exists a large pool of potential support for the party, perhaps 15-20% of the British electorate.

The second (co-authored with Matt Goodwin, Bobby Duffy and Rea Robey) looks at the demographics attitudes and priorities of BNP voters, with a particular focus on Barking and Dagenham.

The Better Angels of Our Nature: How the Antiprejudice Norm Affects Policy and Party Preferences in Great Britain and Germany

American Journal of Political Science, Apr 12, 2013

Existing research on public opinion related to race and immigration politics emphasizes the role ... more Existing research on public opinion related to race and immigration politics emphasizes the role of prejudice or bias against minority groups. We argue that the social norm against prejudice, and individual motivations to comply with it, are crucial elements omitted from prior analyses. In contemporary Western societies, most citizens receive strong signals that prejudice is not normatively acceptable. We demonstrate that many majority-group individuals have internalized a motivation to control prejudiced thoughts and actions and that this motivation influences their political behavior in predictable ways. We introduce measures capturing this motivation, develop hypotheses about its influence, and test these hypotheses in three separate experimental and nonexperimental survey studies conducted in Britain and Germany. Our findings support a dual-process model of political behavior suggesting that while many voters harbor negative stereotypes, they also—particularly when certain contextual signals are present—strive to act in accordance with the “better angels of their natures.”

Strategic Eurosceptics and Polite Xenophobes: Support for the UK Independence Party (UKIP) at the 2009 European Parliament Elections

Britain has long been identified with a strong tradition of Euroscepticism,yet we know little abo... more Britain has long been identified with a strong tradition of Euroscepticism,yet we know little about the drivers of support for openly Eurosceptic parties. In this article, we draw on a unique large-scale dataset to undertake the first ever individual level analysis of the social and attitudinal drivers of support for the UK Independence Party (UKIP) at the 2009 elections to the European Parliament. We find that while Euroscepticism is the most important driver of UKIP support it is not the whole story.
Other attitudinal drivers, namely dissatisfaction towards mainstream parties and xenophobia, are also important. Examining vote-switching between first and second order elections we also find evidence of a distinction between two types of supporter: more affluent middle class ‘strategic defectors’ from the mainstream Conservative Party who support UKIP to register their Euroscepticism; on the other are more economically marginal and politically disaffected ‘core loyalists’ who are attracted to UKIP by its xenophobic, increasingly Islamophobic and populist anti-establishment
strategy. Our analysis suggests that UKIP is well positioned to recruit a more stable and enduring base of support from its extreme right-wing competitor, the British National Party (BNP), and become a significant vehicle of xenophobia and, more
specifically, Islamophobia in modern Britain.

Is racial prejudice declining in Britain?

This article employs two previously neglected indicators of racial prejudice from the British Soc... more This article employs two previously neglected indicators of racial prejudice from the British Social Attitudes surveys to examine the social distribution of prejudices against black and Asian Britons. Three hypotheses are proposed and tested: that racial prejudice is declining in Britain; that this decline is principally generational in nature; and that greater prejudice is shown towards more culturally distinct Asian minorities than black minorities. Strong evidence is found for the first two hypotheses, with evidence of an overall decline in prejudice and of a sharp decline in prejudices among generations who have grown up since mass black and Asian immigration began in the 1950s. Little evidence is found for the third hypothesis: British reactions towards black and Asian minorities are broadly similar suggesting racial differences may still be the main factor prompting white hostility to British minorities.

Anti-immigrant, politically disaffected or still racist after all? Examining the attitudinal drivers of extreme right support in Britain in the 2009 European election

Some new work on the BNP, looking at the 2009 European Parliament elections. We examine the first... more Some new work on the BNP, looking at the 2009 European Parliament elections. We examine the first ever dataset to examine the attitudes of BNP voters, and find that racial prejudice is the strongest motivator for BNP support. Hostility to immigrants and populist anger with the political mainstream also encourage BNP support, while Euroscepticism and hostility towards other minority groups, including homosexuals, Muslims and Jews has no effect.

The anti-racism norm in Western European immigration politics: Why we need to consider it and how to measure it

In this paper, we propose a new research agenda aimed at improving theoretical and empirical mode... more In this paper, we propose a new research agenda aimed at improving theoretical and empirical models of immigration politics in Western Europe. In short, we argue for explicitly taking into account the social norm against racism that is neglected in existing research in this area. In theoretical terms, we draw on existing political science literature on European immigration and US race politics as well as on work in social psychology to explain why and how we think the anti-racism norm influences opinion formation, the political behaviour of individuals, and the effectiveness of various parties’ mobilization strategies. In empirical terms, we propose and present results from a pilot study validating two individual-level measures of the anti-racism norm—one that measures external motivation to control prejudice and another that measures internal motivation. The pilot study shows that the anti-racism norm exists and can be meaningfully measured in a Western European context. We conclude that the suggested research agenda appears theoretically promising and empirically feasible.

Angry White Men: Individual and contextual predictors of support for the British National Party

The British National party (BNP) is the most successful extreme right party in Britain's electora... more The British National party (BNP) is the most successful extreme right party in Britain's electoral history and is the fastest growing political party in twenty-first century Britain. This article presents the first ever individual-level analysis of BNP supporters, utilising a survey data set uniquely compiled for this purpose. We find that support for the BNP is concentrated among older, less educated working-class men living in the declining industrial towns of the North and Midlands regions. This pattern of support is quite distinct from that which underpinned the last electorally relevant extreme right party in Britain – the National Front (NF) – whose base was young working-class men in Greater London and the West Midlands. Extreme right voters in contemporary Britain express exceptionally high levels of anxiety about immigration and disaffection with the mainstream political parties. Multi-level analysis of BNP support shows that the party prospers in areas with low education levels and large Muslim minority populations of Pakistani or African origin. The BNP has succeeded in mobilising a clearly defined support base: middle-aged working-class white men anxious about immigration, threatened by local Muslim communities and hostile to the existing political establishment. We conclude by noting that all the factors underpinning the BNP's emergence – high immigration levels, rising perceptions of identity conflict and the declining strength of the cultural and institutional ties binding voters to the main parties – are likely to persist in the coming years. The BNP therefore looks likely to consolidate itself as a persistent feature of the British political landscape.

Acceptable and unacceptable migrants: the ethnic hierarchy in British immigration preferences

Comparative European research has established that public opposition to immigration is widespread... more Comparative European research has established that public opposition to immigration is widespread and politically important. However, most existing research has suffered from a serious methodological shortcoming: it employs aggregate measures of attitudes to immigrants, which do not distinguish between different migrant groups. This paper corrects this shortcoming by examining disaggregated British attitudes to migration from seven different regions. I find evidence for a consistent hierarchy of preferences between immigrant groups, with white and culturally more proximate immigrant groups less opposed than non-white and culturally more distinct immigrants. The differences in attitudes to different migrant groups are very large, calling into question the reliability of analysis which employs aggregate measures of attitudes to overall immigration. Both total opposition to migration and discrimination between migrant groups decline during the period examined. This is the result of large generational differences in attitudes to immigrants, which are in turn the consequence of cohort differences in education levels, ethnic diversity and in particular value orientations. Younger Britons, who are on average less authoritarian and ethnocentric, oppose immigration less and regard different immigrant groups more equally.

Euroscepticism is now a powerful force for the radical right in the UK–and UKIP is well placed to harness it

UKIP has watched as its competitors on the mainstream and radical right have exited the electoral... more UKIP has watched as its competitors on the mainstream and radical right have exited the electoral field. Robert Ford writes that previously Conservative-voting 'strategic Eurosceptics' along with the BNP's 'polite xenophobes' have joined UKIP's ranks giving Nigel Farage and his party an unprecedented political opportunity.

Force for integration or source of hostility? British nationalism and attitudes to immigrant and Muslim minorities

Abstract The effects of nationalist attachments on attitudes towards minority groups has been muc... more Abstract The effects of nationalist attachments on attitudes towards minority groups has been much debated. Some scholars have argued that nationalism has a crucial role to play in the social and political integration of new minorities, while others have argued that nationalism encourages xenophobia and intolerance towards minority groups. In Britain, the argument is complicated by the existence of several different national group which can form the basis for individual attachments.

From Polls to Votes to Seats: Forecasting the 2010 election

Abstract Our approach is based upon vote intention polls but builds in important insights from po... more Abstract Our approach is based upon vote intention polls but builds in important insights from political science and statistics to produce a prediction of seats at Westminster. First, by controlling for house effects and other sources of error we are able to combine national polls from different sources to provide an estimate of public preferences at any point in time before or during the campaign.

Public Opinion on Immigration - where we are now Feb 2013

Parochial and Cosmopolitan Britain: Examining the social divide in reactions to immigration

Parochial and Cosmopolitan Britain: Examining the social divide in reactions to immigration

The Politics of Inequality in Diverse Societties

Voting for Extremists

British Immigration Attitudes: What do we know?

Grey Nativists vs Melting Pot Youth? Diversity, Age and Racial Attitudes in Europe

Far Right Footsoldiers: Deprivation, Extremist Legacies and BNP Membership

What do we know about Anders Behring Breijvik? Very little.

The British want the world's students to come here - provided they make the grade

Are UKIP supporters racist?

Who benefits from a Lib Dem collapse?

The British view of immigration: scepticism, polarisation, but also pragmatism

What do the British think about immigration?

The emerging social liberalism

Populist Euroscepticism and British Politics